Policy dominated the recent quarter due to the second dovish pivot this year by Chairman Powell. The first occurred in January with the Fed’s pledge for patience regarding further interest rate increases, effectively curtailing a three-year process of policy tightening. The dovish tone accelerated after May’s downside volatility, and the central bank posture quickly hinted at potential rate cuts. Weakening economic data provided an important catalyst as the escalation in trade tension clipped both U.S. and global growth. Benign inflation, now termed “persistent” versus “transitory,” further enabled an easing stance in conjunction with global uncertainty. As the 2nd quarter closed, the Fed appeared willing to act preemptively to elongate the economic expansion, suggesting a broader scope underlying its mandate. Equities rallied over 7% in June, the strongest in over 50 years, as the Fed once again indemnified risk. This appreciation enabled the S&P 500 index to finish the quarter up over 4% and extended year-to-date gains to north of 18%, the strongest in twenty years.
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