Having rebounded from the depths of the pandemic crisis, the global economy faces a critical juncture as it battles to overcome stubborn inflation and revert to more normalized monetary conditions. The commodities complex has been thrown into flux with the war in Ukraine, imperiling regions in close proximity. The challenges are well known, even if the outcomes are uncertain. As we broaden our view to emerging economies, vulnerabilities are surfacing because of inflation and currency depreciation made worse by a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, China faces a financial crisis brought on by a highly leveraged, multi-decade, real estate and infrastructure-fueled growth agenda. The potential for spillover to the broader global economy depends on the extent and breadth of the pain.
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