NEAM Insights

Introduction Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) are the cornerstones of the U.S. housing finance system. As Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), their primary function is to ensure liquidity, stability, and affordability in the secondary mortgage market by purchasing mortgages from lenders, pooling them, and issuing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with a repayment guarantee. This process frees up lenders’ capital and enables them to extend more loans to homebuyers, contributing significantly to housing affordability and availability. Together, the GSEs guarantee $6.67 trillion of Single-Family mortgages, equivalent to ~52% of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt.1,2,3 Read More

Asset-Centric Optimization An asset-centric optimization focuses solely on the investment portfolio, aiming to maximize the investment return based on the risk tolerance towards the assets, without directly considering liabilities. Read More

Government Debt in the 21st Century One of the defining issues of our time is the debt sustainability of sovereign nations. For much of this century, governments around the developed world have lacked the political will or leadership to pursue fiscal austerity measures that would address large fiscal deficits and would put sovereign debt levels on a sustainable path. Politicians have made the determination that it is better to defer addressing the issue, get elected or re-elected, and leave the difficult decisions that may involve sacrifice for a later date or for someone else. The result of this procrastination approach has been ever rising levels of debt on both an absolute basis and relative to the size of the economy. Read More

Introduction The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 served as a wake-up call for the banking industry, highlighting the critical importance of asset liability management (ALM). Banks may need to liquidate assets to meet customers’ cash flow needs, sometimes realizing losses at inopportune times. This focus on ALM is not unique to banking; it is also a cornerstone of risk management in the insurance industry. Life insurance companies, in particular, employ ALM approaches to manage risk. Their investment portfolios need to be “liability-driven” due to the unique nature of their life insurance and annuity products. When it comes to Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance companies, the benefits of incorporating asset liability duration matching in constructing asset portfolios are less clear. Unlike life insurance companies, P&C insurers deal with shorter-term and more unpredictable liabilities, such as claims from natural disasters or bodily injury, potentially leading them to perhaps think about ALM differently. This paper will first outline the various ALM approaches used by life insurance companies. We will then examine the enterprise, fixed income, and liability profiles of P&C companies based on the latest public statutory statements. Read More

Healthy Appetite for Risk in 2024 Risk appetite across the U.S. capital markets was strong in 2024. The U.S. economy was supported by low unemployment, resilient consumer spending, and optimism over the promise of large language models and AI. The Federal Reserve moved to a monetary easing stance, reducing both its policy rate and balance sheet. The final kick came from the sweeping election result, setting off expectations for a growth tailwind from easing regulations and tax cuts. Fixed income markets underwent their own transition. Treasury yields fluctuated over the period but ended the year both steeper and higher as shown in the chart below. Credit spreads narrowed significantly, leaving most sectors on the rich side of historical valuations. Read More

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This issue of Perspectives explores the evolution of the risk and return profile of the U.S. property and casualty (P&C) industry over the past 20 years ending in 2023. It is an update to a previous Perspectives, “Enterprise Risk Capacity: Shifts in Risk” published in January 2022, that focused on data as of year-end 2020. Our motivation for this update was to evaluate if or how the industry’s risk profile evolved given the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent dramatic changes in interest rates and inflation since 2020. Our financial performance and analysis consider statutory accounting and related filings. Read More

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Property and Casualty (P&C) insurers primarily invest in high-quality fixed income securities. Risk assets such as below investment grade bonds, equities, and alternatives complement these portfolios, but guidance on optimal proportions is often unclear. The risk asset “smile” analysis is an economic, mark-to-market framework that shows that preferable ranges exist, and warns that too little exposure or risk-asset reductions can increase investment risk and lower return. Interestingly, the P&C industry appears well positioned in the aggregate. Read More

Datacenter Asset Backed Securities (“ABS”) emerged in 2018 as a niche asset class with limited activity and investor participation. Fast forward to today and the market has grown to over $15 billion in debt outstanding1 and a liquid secondary market. We think the sector offers fixed income investors diversification, strong underlying fundamentals, and attractive risk-adjusted relative value. Read More

The Agency Mortgaged Backed Securities (MBS) market has been on a roller coaster between periods of excess demand and excess supply over the last two decades. This has been largely driven by the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, along with an ever-changing composition of the demand base. Prior to the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) could be counted on to support MBS, but that mandate no longer exists. Today, the upshot of the complex mix of supply side and demand side factors has left MBS in a more challenged technical position resulting in attractive spread levels for the high quality, highly liquid, fixed income stalwart. Yields on MBS now present an attractive entry point for insurance companies, with the opportunity to lock in intermediate-term yields at attractive risk-adjusted spreads. Read More

A lot has been written about the potential future impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on both the U.S. as well as the global economy. It is early innings in this game but we are already seeing explosive growth in tools for AI applications in businesses around the world. What better way to examine this than to take a look at one example of the potential use of AI in our business. Read More