As our regular readers know, NEAM utilizes its proprietary return projection methodology to establish an annual forecast for fixed income returns within the U.S. P&C insurance industry. As part of this process, we also create a distribution of possible outcomes which is used to estimate the probability of a negative total return. While 2016 exhibited roller coaster-like characteristics, our estimates proved reasonably accurate.
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The NEAM Vantage Point series of publications delivers actionable insights to insurance executives by covering a wide range of investment and capital markets topics relevant to the insurance industry.