NEAM Insights

Executive Summary Asset allocations within the U.S. Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance industry have remained largely consistent, with bonds, equities, and Schedule BA assets representing the top three sectors. In 2023, the industry’s holdings in cash and short-term investments surged to an unprecedented 8.3%, a trend likely driven by attractive short-term interest rates. Read More

Executive Summary In 2023, the asset allocations of the U.S. life insurance industry have remained largely stable, with bonds, mortgage loans, and Schedule BA assets representing the top three sectors. In contrast, the industry’s holdings in cash and short-term investments soared to an unprecedented 3.5%, a surge likely driven by attractive short-term interest rates. Consequently, the overall net investment income increased. Read More

June Overview During the Fed’s most recent meeting, they shared that although inflation is tracking in the right direction, with “notable” progress to date, it still sits at a level with which the Fed is not comfortable. In their Summary of Economic Projections, inflation estimates increased for this year and next, while remaining unchanged at 2% for 2026 and beyond, highlighting their belief in the persistence of higher prices while ultimately meeting its target. With higher near-term expected inflation, median estimates now call for one rate cut this year (versus three in March), in line with the messaging that rates will stay higher for longer. Although considerable progress has been made, the Fed’s desire to promote “stable prices for the American people” is leading them to espouse a more restrictive stance for longer, until they can confidently agree that inflation is under control, as indicated by the data. Inflation appears to be the ongoing focus, with the labor market moderating but still healthy. Read More

May Overview Fed minutes referring to the most recent meeting showed that officials questioned whether policy was indeed restrictive enough. Participants wanted to see more “sustainable” progress on the road to their 2% inflation target and felt it would be necessary to keep a constrained policy stance for longer given concerns over the persistence of higher inflation readings which had been “disappointing” during the first quarter of 2024. Read More

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Meeting or exceeding capital requirements set by local regulators and rating agencies is often integral to an insurance company’s ability to operate as a going concern. Most U.S. P&C insurers are accountable to one or more of either the NAIC, AM Best or S&P. In recent years, each of these three organizations introduced revisions or overhauls to their risk-based capital (RBC) models and corresponding methodology. These updates included risk charges and capital requirements for invested assets held by insurers. In this context, we evaluate how these changes can influence enterprise risk and strategic asset allocation. Read More

In the last several years, a tremendous amount of energy has been spent by various regulators, government agencies, trade organizations and other governing bodies around the world to put in place a myriad of mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines relating to ESG, largely focused on climate change. Read More

April Overview Fed minutes relating to the March meeting showed that although nearly all participants felt it might be appropriate to reduce the Fed Funds rate later this year, they still needed to be convinced that inflation was “sustainably” on its way towards 2% before acting. Noting that improving supply conditions were a positive, while appreciating that the path to lower inflation would be “uneven,” participants acknowledged the continuation of strong economic data, and saw “disappointing readings” on inflation as a hurdle to clear before they had enough confidence to reduce their current policy stance. Indeed, by keeping its benchmark rate unchanged for the 6th time at the most recent meeting while citing the “lack of further progress” in bringing inflation to its target, the Fed further cemented its wait-and-see posture. In the post-meeting press conference, against the backdrop of stalled progress on inflation, Fed Chair Powell stated that they are willing to hold the current range “for as long as appropriate” as achieving “greater confidence will take longer than expected.” Understandably and accordingly, market expectations for the initial rate cut moved further back in the year while Treasury yields rose. Read More

March Overview As widely expected, the Fed held its benchmark rate range steady at 5.25-5.50% at its most recent meeting. The decision to do so was unanimous. Although the median rate expectations for 2024 remained the same (4.6%), projecting a total reduction of 75 bps by year-end, estimates for 2025 (3.9%) and 2026 (3.1%) moved upwards, suggesting a slightly tighter framework than before. Median economic projections saw growth estimates increase while the unemployment rate came down marginally. Inflation readings increased for this year, presumably as readings to date have come in higher than previously expected, while estimates for the latter years remained unchanged. Despite progress made to date, the Fed remains “attentive to inflation risks,” and given growth has held up and the labor market remains resilient, it is focused on leaving rates at a sufficiently restrictive level until it gets more evidence that inflation continues to converge on their longer-term target. The result has been a shift in market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut to the summer. Read More

Datacenter Asset Backed Securities (“ABS”) emerged in 2018 as a niche asset class with limited activity and investor participation. Fast forward to today and the market has grown to over $15 billion in debt outstanding1 and a liquid secondary market. We think the sector offers fixed income investors diversification, strong underlying fundamentals, and attractive risk-adjusted relative value. Read More

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this issue, we examine the enterprise profile and investment characteristics of U.S. workers’ compensation (WC) insurers, drawing comparisons with the broader U.S. property and casualty (P&C) industry. Our analysis reveals that over the past decade, WC insurers have recorded lower investment income (expressed as a percentage of invested assets) compared to the broader industry. This divergence primarily results from differing appetites for risk assets between the two groups. When analyzing the fixed income portfolios, commonalities emerge between WC insurers and the industry, with both groups displaying comparable durations and credit qualities. Capitalizing on the recent high-interest-rate environment, WC insurers have matched the industry’s performance in fixed income returns, achieving a nearly identical level of book yield by the end of 2022. Read More